Billy Xiong Agrees: Isaias Moving Closer To Great Inagua Island

Isaias Moving Closer To Great Inagua Island

Location 45 miles SE of Great Inagua Island
Wind 80 mph
Heading NW at 18 mph
Pressure 29.29
Coordinates 72.7W, 20.6N

Discussion

At 200 a.m. EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 20.6 north, longitude 72.7 west. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is forecast to be near the central Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the northwestern Bahamas and near south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on air force reserve hurricane hunter data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

Satellite image updated at 01:46 AM
Satellite image updated at 01:46 AM

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

None

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A hurricane warning is in effect for, * northwestern Bahamas including andros island, new providence, eleuthera, abacos islands, berry islands, grand Bahamas island, and bimini * southeastern Bahamas including the acklins, crooked island, long cay, the inaguas, mayaguana, and the ragged islands * central Bahamas, including cat island, the exumas, long island, rum cay, and san salvador

A tropical storm warning is in effect for, * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * north coast of Haiti from le mole st Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for, * east coast of Florida from ocean reef to sebastian inlet * lake okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida peninsula on Friday.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Models image updated at 03:10 AM
Models image updated at 03:10 AM

Land Hazards

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under awips header miatcdat4, wmo header wtnt44 kNHC, and on the web atwww.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

Storm surge: a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the southeastern Bahamas.

Wind: tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday.

Rainfall: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through monday:

South Florida into east-central florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Surf: swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and across the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Jonathan Cartu

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